Welcome to this months market wrap on North Shore property.
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Well it’s been a year with no end of technology issues for us and this email, but we believe (hope) we are finally sorted after months of back and forward with our service provider and some of the big guys here in NZ. So if you’re receiving this email for the first time in a long time, I apologise, but it’s great to have you back, finally.
Last week this Monthly report we believe failed to send to everybody – so I’ve included it again. If you haven’t seen it, sorry, it’s a little old now being a June report – but still relevant nonetheless given the market isn’t really doing a lot at present.
One week later, and we are now starting to get the first of the July reports in – re.co.nz show average asking prices have crept up slightly across Auckland to $959,067, while new listings were down in 7% year on year, which is inline with my assumptions below. A big positive is they have recorded record July numbers for website hits, showing that people are looking, they are hunting, and they are getting ready to buy.
The Barfoot report showed that they experiencing record low listing levels yet higher sales volumes than the same period last year, and relatively stable prices. Some areas are down and some are up, when compared to last year and also compared to a 12 month running average. On the North Shore, volume was down quite a bit, but prices were up – which is good. Remember B&T only represent about a third of the market so I’m not going right into the details, but good signs.
In This Week’s Market Wrap
– Monthly Wrap – June Results
– Auction Clearance Rates Strong, again
– New Listings & Volume Still Low
– Off Market & Coming Soon
Market Performance – June 2018
Volume of Sales – On the Shore we saw a continued decline in June, plummeting 19% year on year. Across Auckland it wasn’t so bad just a 2% decline off the back of 2 months of growth. It reads horrible BUT let’s go a little deeper as this isn’t the Herald and I’m not the media.
Compared to the previous 6 months, across Auckland volume is up 9% and up 10% on the Shore. Compared to the same period last year, up 3% across Auckland but still down 9% on the Shore – but that reading isn’t so terrible and shows that whilst month on month things are looking pretty bad at times – we’ve got to look at the big picture. Yes sales are down there is no ignoring that, but not as bad as it looks on the surface.
June is typically a low volume month being the midst of Winter, and one would expect volume to start increasing from here. But actually over the past 2 years, volume has decreased in the months following. Why? Last year we had the elections, the year prior, LVR changes and restrictions implemented in capital outflows from China, the year before, LVR restrictions.
So without any changes expected for the balance of the year – it will be interesting to see what will happen. Prediction – more of the same. This year there the factor is simply that the cycle has come to it’s close. However a wee comment below regarding impact of the US Trade War may deliver some change. We will see.
Meidan Prices – Nothing much to say really. Prices are flat. Across Auckland and the North Shore. Comparing the past three 6 month periods, across Auckland, a percentage to the third decimal, so pretty much no change, and on the Shore, actually up 1 or 2 %, which to be fair, is pretty much no change. I’m going to leave prices here as it’s a boring topic, has been for the better part of a year.
Days on Market – Both on 40 days, a slight improvement from last months 41 days. Expect Julys number to be tighter based on what we are seeing. July has been the mover and shaker month in terms of stock clearance due to a lack of new supply so it will be interesting to see these numbers in a couple of weeks.
Stock Availability Still tight – hovering around the mid 1400’s. Same news as my last report – and the few before that. New listings are keeping pace with sales, but good stock, is flying off the shelf as that is where the real shortage is. Good properties for sale are currently few & far between, providing great competition and great results for Vendors.
The Trade War
Not really a property related topic, or one I know a great deal about – but – apparently if China relaxes monetary policy, such as controls limiting cash outflows, and weakens their currency in response to US imposed tariffs on their exports, we MAY see more Chinese money coming in and more investment in NZ. And we all know what that does to property prices. Reports are coming in that this is already evident in Australia, and we are watching closely for impact in NZ.
Do you have an opinion on this? I’d love to hear it.
Cooper & Co Auctions
Clearance rates drifted back to the new normal here at Cooper & Co with 14/32 going under the hammer these past two weeks, a rate of 44% which is consistent with the June combined average but a little lower than the C&C average for June of 50% and the current 4 week average of 56%. The school holiday effect? Maybe.
B&T had a much better fortnight climbing back up to their average levels clearing 36% over the two week period. This is good to see and I genuinely mean this. As much as we like to beat up on our competition – they represent a third of the market and because they do all of their auctions in one place, a poor week actually impacts buyer & seller confidence across. People talk about how good, or bad, the B&T Auction rooms were, and we have seen many times our buyers for Auctions coming up on the weekend, get rattled by a terrible in-rooms performance by B&T on the Thursday prior. In the hot market this actually worked the other way and was quite helpful, now, not so much.
What people don’t probably realise though is across Auckland they are the biggest brand, but they only represent 1/3 of the market, and our stats show that on the Shore that Harcourts is pretty much even. Actually in recent months we have been ahead.
Auctions & Auction “Heroes”
It’s been interesting seeing agents presented or even perceived as heroes for delivering action packed Auctions, when marketing amazing homes. Good on them, and great news for their vendors. But if your shopping for an agent, remember this is the market we are in – good properties at the moment still deliver great results.
In the crazy market we all claimed we were heroes, constantly smashing expectations – which to be fair, was really just the market and the process, not the agent so much.
In this market, there are far fewer crazy auction stories and most of those that we do hear of, are great homes, which there is a shortage of, and they are all going pretty good. I guess my point is, despite how much all us agents beat our chests sharing great auction stories, you shouldn’t consider an agent based on their ability to sell an amazing home for an amazing price, under the hammer, because that’s a little easier – always has been.
If I were choosing an agent, I would be looking for stories of success which involve selling average homes for great prices. Stories of working multi-offers, and negotiation or reserve strategies that have netted fantastic results. That’s where the skill is.
I would be choosing an agent based on their ability to deal with a situation when things DON’T go to plan.
We’ve been busy, and we have plenty of new listings in the pipeline and coming soon, be sure to check out our website for current listings, or get in touch about anything detailed below.
Milford – It’s a secret – but if your looking for new & luxury, give me a call
Browns Bay – A Brand New 6 Bedroom Home
Northcote – A gorgeous 3 bed bungalow
Forrest Hill – An entry level 3 bedroom home
Forrest Hill – A 6 year old weatherboard modern 4 bedroom family home
Takapuna – A sunny semi-detached townhouse
Browns Bay – A gorgeous renovated townhouse
Castor Bay – A beautiful large modern family home
Takapuna – Mixed Use Opportunity, great home or office
Campbells Bay – Brand new townhouses off the plans
Sunnynook – A brand new family home on a freehold site
Sunnynook – A nicely renovated 3 bedroom home
Greenhithe – A large 370sqm approx modern brick family home
Thanks for your time, welcome back again to those we haven’t been able to send to all year, and have a fantastic weekend. And GO THE CRUSADERS!!!
Even if you’re not a Crusader fan – we still want a Kiwi team to win don’t we? Unless your English, South African or Australian in which case I’m sure you’ve all dug out you’re Lions jerseys or got your wee little flag ready – good luck to you! ;-).
In any event, rugby fans let’s hope for a good final and no Red Cards.
Have a great weekend!