Welcome to this weeks wrap on North Shore property.
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I hope the school holidays are treating you well. I’m off on my own holiday with my wife and kids on Monday so no update next week but the following week we will have a full monthly report for you as the REINZ Stats (which we were hoping to have had by this morning) will be out any day. In the meantime…
In This Week’s Market Wrap
– Insight from Stephen Toplis of BNZ
– Auction Clearance Rates Steady
– New Listings & Volume Remains Low
– Off Market & Coming Soon
A word with Stephen Toplis of the BNZ
I had the pleasure of attending a talk held by BNZ’s Head of Research Stephen Toplis on Thursday, which was specifically geared around the NZ & Auckland property markets.
What were my key takeaways? Well if we can set aside the facts that our property is grossly over-valued and that we have the worst income to value ratio on the planet, everything else looks pretty good – assuming you are satisfied with the status quo. A stable market where prices if nothing else may just creep ever so slightly upward over the next 4-5 years – but with the volume of sales forecast to improve which is great to hear given we appear to have hit one heck of a low.
Further – despite the overvaluation, a correction is not expected by any of the major banks and economists as there are no catalysts in play to suggest this may happen – and the country economically, is in very good shape. Interest rates will of course be increased at some point in the next 2-3 years, but very gradually, as nobody, especially the RBNZ, want to see a crash.
So to break it down very briefly:
– The glory days are over
– Overvaluation persists
– A catalyst for a correction is absent
– A nirvana resolution is plausible (not the Hindu or Buddhist version)
Cooper & Co Auctions
Clearance rates drifted back to the new normal here at Cooper & Co with 9/20 going under the hammer last week, a rate of 45% which is consistent with the June combined average but a little lower than the C&C average for June of 50% and the current 4 week average of 56%. The school holiday effect? Maybe.
B&T had a much better week climbing back up to their average levels clearing 35% last week. This is good to see and I genuinely mean this. As much as we like to poke fun at our competitions woeful clearance rates week in and week out – their poor performance doesn’t do the market any good as their results effect buyer & seller confidence. Why? Because so many people view them as the benchmark – which on the Shore is just wrong and this is why I like to combine the results for you so you can get a better gauge of how things really are.
Across Auckland they are the biggest but they only represent 1/3 of the market, and our stats show that here on the Shore, Harcourts is pretty much even. Actually in recent months we have been ahead.
So whilst I am more than happy to see the Harcourts Cooper & Co team continually hammer (excuse the pun) them in terms of our Auction success rates – it would be better for market confidence if things were a little closer. Hence my genuine relief when they clear in the 30’s – and not the 20’s like last week. It would be great to seem them consistently achieve a little better though.
Same as last week – after tightening consistently for a number of weeks, the flow definitely seems to have stemmed with around 1450 properties still available on the Shore this morning.
We know that the number of new listings is significantly down – so this can only mean that the volume of sales is also significantly down so far in July given stock levels haven’t changed all that much.
Clearly the pace of new listings is currently matching the pace of sales, and prices remain pretty flat. Is this the Nirvana that Stephen talked about?
Kiwibuild Two Cents
Heres a few cents to those thinking about signing up – 20,000 others so far have also signed up to be in the ballot. So sure, go for it, sign yourself up, absolutely put yourself in the running for a chance, why wouldn’t you?? BUT REMEMBER – it’s an absolute lottery, you can’t build your future plans around a Kiwibuild home.
Work hard, but more importantly work smart, and back on yourself to build your own future because nobody else is going to build it for you – especially not the government. Plans to financial freedom require working your face off, and if you get lucky along the way, something may come off that may catapult you their much quicker. Like a groundbreaking startup, amazing app, winning lotto or… a Kiwibuild home – which still isn’t going to provide the windfall of the latter 3 options.
Be sure to get in touch for more details we have a couple on our books.
Sunnynook – A relatively flat section in Double Westlake Zone
Castor Bay – A flat rear site of around 400sqm with AMAZING sea views & plans
We have plenty of new listings in the pipeline and coming soon, be sure to check out our website for current listings, or get in touch about anything detailed below.
Milford – It’s a secret – but if your looking for new & luxury, give me a call
Browns Bay – A Brand New 6 Bedroom Home
Forrest Hill – An entry level 3 bedroom home
Takapuna – A sunny semi-detached townhouse
Greenhithe – A super spacious one level home
Browns Bay – A gorgeous renovated townhouse
Castor Bay – A beautiful large modern family home
Takapuna – Mixed Use Opportunity, great home or office
Campbells Bay – Brand new townhouses off the plans
Sunnynook – A brand new family home on a freehold site
Sunnynook – A nicely renovated 3 bedroom home
Murrays Bay – A beautifully renovated 4 bedroom townhouse
That’s it from me, have a great weekend and GO THE BLUES!! (wishful thinking I know)
Have a safe and fun holiday if you are heading away :o)
Have a great couple of weeks!