Welcome to our Monthly North Shore wrap for October. To view the full report click here.
The built-up demand as a result of the shortage of listings has been producing some remarkable results across all sectors of the market. It is going to be a busy run of sales through to the end of the year presenting opportunities for buyers & sellers. Four and a half weeks till Christmas… wow.
The short story (a summary of below)
A favourable combination of market factors is fueling the confidence of buyers. The cancellation of capital gains tax combined with tumbling interest rates has assisted with reigniting the market.
Stock levels have increased in past weeks but there is still around 23% less stock available on the market at present than this time last year. The low stock levels combined with increased confidence and a resurgence of buyers has led to a humming market with consistently strong clearance rates, less average days on market, and whilst the stats aren’t showing it yet, upward pressure is being applied to prices through strong competition at Auctions. Off we go again? Let’s not get too excited just yet, but if you’re thinking of buying, maybe sooner rather than later would be my suggestion.
In This Week’s Market Wrap
– Monthly Wrap
– Auction Results
– Listings & Stock Availability
Please note unless otherwise specified, stats and figures quoted below are for the North Shore. Average clearance rates are combined Harcourts and B&T results.
During September, and then again in October we saw some of the lowest stock levels available on the Shore for well over a year, which combined with a resurgence of buyers, led to a rapid incline in Auction clearance rates, and the highest 4 week average clearance rates in at least 2 years (my data only goes back 2 years). In the final weeks of October a clearance rate of 60% was achieved out of 151 Auctions called. That’s pretty good going and a solid 15-20% higher than around this time last year.
We started experiencing very busy open homes, with a number of agents including ourselves reporting over 100 inspections during a 3 week campaign. Plenty of agents are also experiencing 30-50 groups through the first weekend of open homes. This certainly hasn’t slowed, but as a wee bit more stock has begun to hit the market, some buyers are beginning to feel like they have a bit of choice, but this will be short lived. Stock levels have climbed a bit in the past few weeks sitting just shy of 1500 properties available, but a wee look at my report this time last year shows there were over 1900 properties available at that time! So a big big change.
Is this the beginning of the new upward cycle for Auckland? Many think so, including myself. Let’s not forget, we have now had 3 years of a very flat and then slightly downward market as can be seen in the graph below. Speaking in cycles, not that they necessarily always apply, but it is time.
Median Prices since Feb 2012
$980,000 on the Shore for October, 1.7% below last year and 7.8% down on 2 years ago. So no real change here according to the stats, but it does feel like they are creeping back up. We are starting to see more and more pretty good prices. Not crazy, but lots of pretty good prices a little higher than where we thought they would be.
Across Auckland the media (as per usual) had some cracking headlines about the highest median price for Auckland in 20 or so months being achieved during October. A great headline, the median was $868,000, up $1000 on November 2018. Not really worthy of the headline, but still looks good. The average over the past few months is around $840,000 so it is a good increase more in line with what we are seeing on the ground and a positive sign moving forward.
Days on Market
A slight improvement on September to 36 days for both Auckland and the Shore, very similar to last year, but obviously much, much better than a few months ago when this figure sat in the mid 40’s.
Volume of Sales
An increase from September as you would expect to 317 properties sold, but volumes on the Shore are still pretty low comparatively with little change for November since 2017, still in the low 300’s.
Covered this above. Look at the difference in the 12 week average from the same period last year below – nearly double!! Harcourts C&C sold 7 out of 11 at our in-rooms auctions last night, 12 from 22 last week, and we are averaging 61% under the hammer over the past 12 weeks. Pretty good going!
Combined Clearance Rates*
12 week average 54%
4 week average 52%
This Week 54% (2018 – 29%)
Harcourts C&C – 55% Clearance Rate (12/22)
Barfoot* – 53% Clearance Rate (16/30)
12 Week Average
Harcourts C&C – 61% Clearance Rate
Barfoot* – 48% Clearance Rate
* Harcourts Cooper & Co and B&T In-Room Auctions. *Source: Barfoot website – Thursday In-Room Results. Please note clearance rates are for properties sold under the hammer or post negotiation that day (sales the following day are not included)
Listings & Stock Availability
It’s started to creep up these past couple of weeks sitting at 1485 listings available on the North Shore on realestate.co.nz. A few weeks back it was 1300. But this time last year – over 1900!! Just goes to show how tight we are for stock at the moment, which of course is having an effect on clearance rates, and ultimately we are seeing upward pressure on prices through competition.
That’s it from me, be sure to check out some of our amazing new listings this weekend!